If you are new to this blog, you are invited to read first “The Largest Heist in History” which was accepted as evidence and published by the British Parliament, House of Commons, Treasury Committee.

"It is typically characterised by strong, compelling, logic. I loosely use the term 'pyramid selling' to describe the activities of the City but you explain in crystal clear terms why this is so." commented Dr Vincent Cable MP to the author.

This blog demonstrates that:

- the financial system was turned into a pyramid scheme in a technical, legal sense (not just proverbial);

- the current crisis was easily predictable (without any benefit of hindsight) by any competent financier, i.e. with rudimentary knowledge of mathematics, hence avoidable.

It is up to readers to draw their own conclusions. Whether this crisis is a result of a conspiracy to defraud taxpayers, or a massive negligence, or it is just a misfortune, or maybe a Swedish count, Axel Oxenstierna, was right when he said to his son in the 17th century: "Do you not know, my son, with how little wisdom the world is governed?".

Wednesday, 2 September 2009

Loan to deposit ratio and banks liquidity



(This article is a technical analysis dedicated to John Varley, the CEO of Barclays Bank, of one of the largest and most famous banks in the world, referred to in the article “Liquidity risk”, who took care to write to the author of this blog.)

The key issue about banks liquidity is money multiplier. Money multiplier is a ratio of banks balance sheets to cash in circulation. It answers a question: how many pounds on the banks balance sheets does £1 real cash has to cover?


When a loan to deposit ratio is below 100% a money multiplier (MM) is expressed by a formula: MM = 1/(1-LTD) where LTD is loan to deposit ratio expressed in decimal terms. The loan to deposit ratio can fluctuate: i.e. if LTD is 50% then MM is 2, if LTD is 75% then MM is 4, if LTD is 90% then is 10, if LTD is 99% then MM is 100.

Ultimately, if loan to deposit ratio is always kept below 100% then, at any one time, the ratio of total loans to total deposits on the books gives an average loan to deposit ratio (ALTD). This average may be done for a particular bank or for a group of banks or for entire economy. A money multiplier calculated on the basis of such average, 1/(1-ALTD), is a measure of a particular bank’s liquidity, a group of banks liquidity or entire economy liquidity position. A bank's CEO can look at such figure and have an immediate good idea about the liquidity of his bank. A Chancellor of the Exchequer (a Minister of Finance) may look at such figure calculated on the basis of total loans and total deposits for all banks and have a good idea of the liquidity of the banking system.

This money multiplier can be then considered within a concept of “stickiness” of different types of money deposited in banks (current accounts, deposit accounts, investments, etc). The lower the money multiplier the higher the “stickiness” of any kind of deposits. In other words, if £1 real cash covers lower amount of pounds on the banks’ balance sheets, the likelihood (under the same circumstances) that a bank will not have sufficient cash to cover the demand for withdrawals is lower than if £1 real cash covers higher amount of pounds.

Therefore if loan to deposit ratio is below 100%, the lower the loan to deposit ratio, the lower the money multiplier, the higher the “stickiness” of funds and the lower the liquidity risk. A ratio of total loans to total deposits gives a money multiplier at any one time and a good idea about underlying liquidity risk. Then a consideration can be given to "stickiness" of individual financial products (from current accounts to long term investments such as pensions).


When a loan to deposit ratio (LTD) is above (or equal) 100%, money multiplier (MM) is infinite. Of course it does not make sense to state that £1 of real cash has to cover infinite amount of pounds on banks balance sheets, at any one time, but it would be so if this continued forever. If a LTD is above (or equal) 100% then we have to calculate MM based on the number of deposit – loan cycles. For example if LTD is 100% and initial deposit is £1, after 20 deposit – loan cycles, this £1 has to cover £20 on the banks balance sheets and after 220 deposit – loan cycles, this £1 has to cover £220 on the banks balance sheets and so on. This is a staggering but still linear growth. If LTD is above 100%, then the financial system becomes a classic example of a pyramid scheme. For example if LTD is 117% and initial deposit £1, after 20 deposit – loan cycles, this £1 has to cover over £130 on the banks balance sheets and after 220 deposit – loan cycles, this £1 has to cover over £5.89 quadrillion on the banks balance sheets and so on. This is a runaway exponential growth.

As it is a cycle, whereby deposits become loans which become deposits and so on, if loan to deposit ratio is above (or equal) 100%, the higher loans result in deposits that result in even higher loans and so on. Therefore in terms of liquidity if at any one time a ratio of total loans to total deposits is taken (which is higher than one) – per bank, a group of banks or entire financial system - it does not give any idea about the prevailing money multiplier as, unlike when loan to deposit ratio is below 100%, it also depends on a number of deposit – loan cycles and loan to deposit ratio of each of them. Therefore a bank’s CEO or a Minister of Finance does not have an idea about the liquidity based on total loans to total deposits ratio. Perversely, model-wise for the sake of clarity of argument, if there were, say, 20 full cycles with loan to deposit ratio of 117% followed by a full cycle of 0%, then the total loans to total deposits ratio would be below 100% whilst money multiplier would be over 130, i.e. liquidity would be extremely fragile. (It should be noted that whilst deposit – loan cycles do not occur in such a uniform, synchronised, way, the model presented gives an accurate account of how they work and what outcomes they produce in reality.) For example information that a bank reduced loan to deposit ratio from 138% to 129% does not carry information whether its liquidity improved or got worse. If a bank stopped giving loans and started keeping deposits building up liquidity buffer, this would imply that liquidity improved. However if a bank continued to lend with, say, loan to deposit ratio of 105% which could have resulted in overall reduction from 138% to 129% (total loans to total deposits), this would have implied that liquidity actually got worse. As presently the banks have reduced lending heavily, the former rather than latter seems to be the case (but this is a guess) and it is foolish of the government to expect banks to lend more.

We know however that a money multiplier keeps growing very fast (at exponential pace, i.e. it is a pyramid scheme, if loan to deposit ratio is above 100%), and if this continued forever, ultimately, £1 real cash would have to cover the balance sheets that would be infinitely high. As this is impossible, a liquidity crunch is 100% certain in a finite time.

It follows that if loan to deposit ratio is above (or equal) 100%, the higher the loan to deposit ratio, the faster the money multiplier growth. However, in any event, the liquidity risk is 100% in a finite time. It follows that the traditional notion of “stickiness” of funds becomes vacuous as no funds are “sticky” anyway. It is a question when (in a finite time) and in which part of the system the liquidity crunch starts. This depends on various factors such as access to information or sophistication of depositors/investors in particular financial products who realise first that £1 real cash cannot cover ever growing, and without a limit, banks balance sheets and decide to withdraw their funding first. Therefore it is not surprising at all, in the context of the current financial crisis, that traditional retail deposits turned up more “sticky” than wholesale, investment-based, funding.

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  3. Any idea of how loan/deposit ratio varies over time?
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  6. The key issue about banks liquidity is money multiplier. Money multiplier is a ratio of banks balance sheets to cash in circulation. It answers a question: how many pounds on the banks balance sheets does £1 real cash has to cover?loan

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  43. Mi nombre es Maria Eduarda Lívia y soy de español que quiero usar este momento para decirle a todos en internet acerca de cómo recibí mi préstamo de hoy de una nueva empresa de préstamo legítimo de 2017 el nombre de la empresa es Marian Hoffman préstamo de la empresa y ellos Soy legítimo nunca he visto la compañía en el Internet antes y apenas las vi ayer en un sitio y decidí aplicarlas me dijeron que todo que necesito hacer y después de hacerlas que recibí mi préstamo en mi cuenta bancaria hoy. Quiero utilizar este tiempo para decirle a todo el mundo en Internet que si usted necesita un préstamo de préstamo legítimo esta es la empresa real para aplicar y de inmediato se aplican de ellos sólo estar seguro de que va a recibir su préstamo con seguridad de ellos y sea feliz. Si usted está interesado en un préstamo Marian Hoffman es la empresa a aplicar de que son reales y la empresa de préstamo legítimo de 2017 allí dirección de correo es marianhoffman.finance@gmail.com

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  44. Hola mi nombre es Pamela Renata Giovana soy de español Acabo de recibir mi préstamo de 50.000 Reals de esta nueva empresa de préstamos legítimos de 2017 y el nombre de la empresa es Marian Hoffman préstamo de la compañía que solicité un préstamo de ayer y acabo de recibir una alerta De mi banco hoy que había un fondo de 50.000 reales en mi cuenta y soy tan feliz por lo que todo el mundo si necesita un préstamo real esta es la empresa a aplicar de ellos son reales y estar seguro de que si solicita un préstamo de Ellos hoy y que son rápidos con ellos para mañana estar esperando sus fondos de préstamo en su cuenta de forma segura. Tan si usted necesita un préstamo de ellos usted puede solamente entrar en contacto con ellos vía allí correo en marianhoffman.finance@gmail.com.

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  55. DO YOU NEED A LOAN TO START A BEFITTING NEW YEAR!!!!!!

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  57. I am Sarah by name. I live in CANADA, i want to use this medium to alert all loan seekers to be very careful because there are scam everywhere.Few months ago I was financially strained, and due to my desperation I was scammed by several online loan lenders. I had almost lost hope until a friend of mine referred me to a very reliable loan lender called Mr Perch David from USA who lend me loan of $50,000 under 6hours without any stress. If you are in need of any kind of loan just contact him now via: forafinancialloancompany@gmail.com I am using this medium to alert all loan seekers because of the hell I passed through in the hands of those fraudulent lenders. And I dont wish even my enemy to pass through such hell that I passed through in the hands of those fraudulent online lenders,i will also want you to help me pass this information to others who are also in need of a loan once you have also receive your loan from Mr Perch David from USA, i pray that God should give him long life.

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  58. I am Sarah by name. I live in CANADA, i want to use this medium to alert all loan seekers to be very careful because there are scam everywhere.Few months ago I was financially strained, and due to my desperation I was scammed by several online loan lenders. I had almost lost hope until a friend of mine referred me to a very reliable loan lender called Mr Perch David from USA who lend me loan of $50,000 under 6hours without any stress. If you are in need of any kind of loan just contact him now via: forafinancialloancompany@gmail.com I am using this medium to alert all loan seekers because of the hell I passed through in the hands of those fraudulent lenders. And I dont wish even my enemy to pass through such hell that I passed through in the hands of those fraudulent online lenders,i will also want you to help me pass this information to others who are also in need of a loan once you have also receive your loan from Mr Perch David from USA, i pray that God should give him long life.

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  59. Good-Day:

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